T1B

Left Seater wrote:Rutgers, Washington, and Army were on at a minimum of 4 times over the past 15 years. The winning percentage of these teams in the years they played ND was .301%

I wasn't sure about this, so I checked the records. Rutgers and Army each have played ND three times in the past 15 years. In Army's case, the third meeting (2006) was when the NCAA added the 12th game on short notice in 2006. Many schools added a FCS school to their schedule. ND added a scrub, but at least it was a scrub as to whom we have some tradition. Given our history of playing in the NYC area, I don't have a problem with the occasional game against Army or Rutgers. I do have a problem with the fact that we apparently just signed a long-term deal with Army, though.

There have been plenty of teams like Nebraska, Texas, LSU, FSU, Tenn, etc. The problem is for each one of those there are two of Northwestern, Vandy, Hawaii, Baylor, Kansas, Maryland, BYU, Syracuse, Washington State, UNC, etc.

To be fair, every team in the former category was a home-and-home, whereas many teams in the latter category (Hawaii, Baylor, Kansas, Maryland, Washington State) were one-offs. Northwestern wasn't a one-off, but hasn't been on our schedule since '95, which appears to be the year you began your search. It was also the year Northwestern went to the Rose Bowl, btw.

In fact ND has had two winning seasons against top 28 strength of schedules in the last 13 years. In '05 they went 9-3 against the 7th rated schedule, in '02 they went 10-3 against the 15th ranked schedule. Their last three strenghts of schedule are 78th, 30th, and 39th. This season's SOS could be absolutely horrible, depending on how SC and Michigan finish the season.

Not sure where you're getting your schedule rankings from. I used Sagarin, and over the last three seasons (working backward), ND's SOS was 50th, 24th, and 18th (2006, therefore, would've qualified as a winning season vs. Top 28 SOS). I would expect our SOS rank this season to be about where it was last season -- we drop San Diego State, North Carolina and Syracuse and add Nevada, Washington State and Connecticut. Of course, an unexpected season, either positive or negative, from one of our opponents could have a huge impact.

So how do you feel about the schedule year in and year out?

Probably more information than you want, but to me it looks like we're trying to fit 50 pounds of stuff into a 10-pound bag. A quick hitter on various scheduling issues that have arisen in recent years:

Traditional rivalries: Like them, and I can see a reason for continuing with each of the traditional rivalries currently on our schedule. However, if you want more diversity on the schedule, some of these may have to be sacrificed.

3 games vs. Big East: I realize I'm in the minority on this point, and maybe it's impacted by where I live, but I actually don't have a problem with this. By accepting us into the Big East for basketball and other sports on our terms, the Big East helped us save our basketball program. I don't see a semi-favored status on our football schedule being too big a price to pay for that. In fact, I see the Big East obligation as being somewhat akin to the debt of honor game with Navy, albeit on a smaller scale.

7-4-1: Hate this idea, it's a move in the wrong direction. While there are some BCS teams that might be willing to take a one-off with ND in exchange for a national TV appearance, there aren't enough of them to allow ND to continue this schedule arrangement in the long term. Throw in teams that would be willing to take a 2-1 deal, perhaps, and you might be able to pull it off. But that would require pulling the plug on some of the traditional rivalries. If seven home games are a necessity from a financial standpoint, I've floated a compromise whereby we would schedule Hawaii every so often, play them on the road, and that would allow us a 13th game, which could be at home.

Barnstorming: Love it in theory, hate it in practice. ND vs. Washington State in San Antonio, 'nuff said. Perhaps Swarbrick can come up with better matchups for this game, but that still remains to be seen.

4-4-4: Not an official ND scheduling policy or even a consideration, but a construct of one of the ND homer boards. The idea behind it is to rank opponents into three tiers, and each year schedule four Tier 1 teams, 4 Tier 2 teams and 4 Tier 3 teams. Again, a good idea in theory, but practice is a different matter altogether. One problem is the feasibility of such a proposal. The tiers are not divided equally. Rather, it looks like a bell curve, with Tier 1 being the smallest grouping. Assuming we'll keep two Tier 1 schools (USC and Michigan) on the schedule annually, that leaves only about 10 or so remaining schools to fill out the last two Tier 1 slots every year. Another problem is bias, both with respect to rankings (for example, Texas Tech is ranked as a Tier 3 school) and with respect to who is ranked and who isn't (only BCS schools and service academies are ranked). I can see the reasoning as to why service academies are favored on ND's schedule over other non-BCS schools, but in something purporting to be an objective ranking, that should go out the window. For example, Army gets a Tier 3 ranking, while Utah (on ND's schedule in 2010) is unranked.

Scheduling is a topic that comes up a lot for ND in the offseason. The biggest complaints on the ND homerboards are the lack of variety and lack of marquee opponents on the schedule. I've given this matter a lot of thought, and I've come to a conclusion as to what I would do if I were ND's AD (and I'm not).

What I would do is utilize a 4-5-3 scheduling format. That's not related to 4-4-4, though. I'll explain below.

A. 4 permanent opponents on the schedule.

1&2. Navy and USC. Everyone seems to agree that those two are the sacred cows, albeit for differing reasons.
3. Michigan. This is tough for ND fan to admit, but deep down in places we don't like to talk about at parties, we want Skunkbear on that schedule. We need Skunkbear on that schedule.
4. Pitt. Yeah, I know this is something of a surprise, but if we're going to play 3 games per year vs. the Big East, it makes sense to me to have an annual matchup with our biggest rival in that conference.

B. 5 games that rotate between/among various finite groups of opponents, as follows:

1. Michigan State/Purdue. Probably the most controversial decision here. But these teams serve largely duplicative purposes on ND's schedule today. I recognize the importance each has had in ND's tradition, and for that matter I wouldn't cut either one off entirely. Alternatively, I'd reconsider leaving both on the schedule permanently if the Big Ten were to drop its September-only rule for scheduling ND.

2. A rotating marquee opponent. We already have Oklahoma coming on the schedule for '12 and '13. I'd work around that, beginning with the teams that have contacted us recently about a series (Alabama, Florida, Georgia and Miami). Schedule a home-and-home with each, except Miami, whose series would include a neutral site game or two as well. Schedule one in every year, and you've already gotten through the first decade or so.

3. A rotating western team. There's been a lot of criticism on the ND boards about continuing to carry Stanford. Yet Stanford serves an important purpose -- in conjunction with USC, it guarantees us a road game on the west coast every year. What I would do is rotate through five teams: Arizona State, Cal, Stanford, UCLA and Hawaii. Each team would get two games per decade, home-and-home for each except Hawaii, who would get two home games vs. ND. Stagger the remaining home-and-homes with the USC game.

4&5. Two remaining Big East games. Rather than giving UConn an annual game, I would rotate the two remaining Big East games among the remaining Big East schools including UConn.

C. Three remaining games TBD.

This is where you would fit in any game that didn't fit in to one of the other categories. Want a fourth game vs. a marquee opponent? Want to schedule a school to whom you owe a favor? Want to schedule a home-and-home against Minnesota to include the dedication game for their new stadium? Want to schedule Air Force or Army? (I wouldn't schedule both of them in the same year, though.) This is the category where these games would go. In years when we played Hawaii, we'd get a fourth game in this category.

Anyhow, that's how I'd do it if I were in charge. Probably more information than you wanted to know.

MgoBlue-LightSpecial wrote:Terry, you can't rationalize 6-6. That's bordering on m2-like behavior. It wasn't like one token fluky loss prevented them from greatness last year. They were just a BAD team.

Justifying a loss to Syracuse, based on the final score, tells me all I need to know about the state of ND football.

I'm not justifying any of those losses. ND never should have put itself in that position in the first place.

That having been said, no team is at its best week in and week out. Occasionally you're going to find yourself in a tight game. My point was that an experienced team often finds a way to win those games, and an inexperienced team does not.

ND was a 6-6 team last year. Their best case scenario, though, would've been a 9-3 team.

By contrast, the previous year ND was a 3-9 team. That year, their best case scenario only would've been 4-8. Of all their losses in '07, only one game -- Navy -- was winnable.

ND still has an awful long way to go, but they were more improved last season than most on this board realize. That's all I'm saying.

MgoBlue-LightSpecial wrote:No, I've never heard it as Stanford either. S_M is full of shite.

I'd never heard it referred to as Stanford, CA either, but damn if google doesn't actually back Screw up -- sort of.

http://www.google.com/search?q=94305&rl ... 1I7GGLL_en

In any event, referring to ND as being in Notre Dame, IN is hardly anything new. ND had its own post office back when I was a student, and, I suspect, for quite some time before that.

Van wrote:Oh, and yeah, I do think of the Air Force Academy as being in Colorado Springs. That's what they always say, any time there's a tv telecast or wire story about an AF home game.

You might want to tell CFBDataWarehouse about that. They list ND home games as South Bend, IN but Air Force home games as being at Air Force Academy, CO.

Good discussion.

Sounds like you think USC, Navy, Pitt and Michigan are untouchable. I can see that. I don't know though with Stanford or another lower level west coast team you can have three Big East teams.

If they want to play so many Big East teams each year, why not join the conferece? (I know another discussion)


My strength of schedule numbers came from google. Should have gone with Sag.

With two service academies, Pitt, Stanford, and two big east teams each year, I don't think that schedule does ND any favors. Sure some years half of those schools will be decent, but in most years they start off working from behind. Even in years that those schools are better they are still working to overcome voter bias of those schools.

Okay, I missed the memo on Michigan = Skunkbear.

I like that. What's the story there? Is "skunkbear" a nic for a wolverine, or sumthin'?

Oh, and for what it's worth, I once read where pound-for-pound a wolverine is one the baddest creatures on the planet. Make a bear-sized wolverine and you'd have yourself one seriously ferocious fucker.

Yeah, a wolverine is a skunk bear.

Terry in Crapchester wrote:ND still has an awful long way to go, but they were more improved last season than most on this board realize. That's all I'm saying.

Of course they improved, and they should improve in 2009 as well. I'm not arguing against that, I'm arguing against your claim that it isn't far-fetched for ND to win the title in '09. Going from 6-6 immediately to 12-0, or even 11-1, IS far-fetched no matter how many close losses they had last year.

For what it's worth I think they'll go 8-4.

Terry in Crapchester wrote:
I'd never heard it referred to as Stanford, CA either, but damn if google doesn't actually back Screw up -- sort of.

http://www.google.com/search?q=94305&rl ... 1I7GGLL_en

Sort of?

http://www.stanford.edu/

Scroll to bottom, read the fucking address.

I'm not going to get to deep on this seeing as how pounding out a long reply on my Blackberry would take foreverM but for those of you thinking ND fans are on crack, ask yourselves this question: If Nick Saban, Urban Meyer or any other teir one coach were at ND, what would you expect their record to be? And speaking of Saban, he went from 6-6 to 11 wins in one year.

Also, Phil Steele has ND as a dark hourse NC team this year. So ND fans aren't the only ones who think like that.

As for the schedule, USC and Navy are the only untouchables.

Killian wrote:And speaking of Saban, he went from 6-6 to 11 wins in one year.

Are you fucking serious? Comparing Saban's resume to Fat ass Weis? You must be on crack.

Screw_Michigan wrote:

Killian wrote:And speaking of Saban, he went from 6-6 to 11 wins in one year.

Are you fucking serious? Comparing Saban's resume to Fat ass Weis? You must be on crack.

Reading comprehension isn't your thing, that's cool. I stated a fact and in your rush to bash everything ND related, ignored that I called Saban a teir one coach. I don't have the patience to draw this out any longer, so if you're going to fall back to one of your music forum type rants, save it.

Well, ND has far from a tier-one coach at the helm, so I guess asking how they would finish with a tier-one coach is irrelevant. I'm pretty sure Western Michigan would go 12-0 and win a BCS game if Nick Saban was coaching there. As has been stated before (I know ignoring reality is something you're accustomed to), it's not necessarily the personnel, but the infrastructure. It took Saban a year to dismantle that infrastructure and rebuild. ND would require the same.

Keep living in your fantasy world, praying for Weis to get canned.

WMU couldn't get a teir one coach, so what's your point? The original point was that it was out of the realm of possibility for ND (or most any team) to go from 6 wins to 11 or 12. If Weis were to choke on his fried crisco sandwich tomorrow and Saban were to grab his carpet and head to Notre Dame, IN, ND would be a top 15 team to start the season.

Maybe it will be different because Weis again has a team that is JR and SR loaded like he did in '05. Maybe it will be differen because Chunk is calling the plays again. But with this talent and schedule, 11 wins isn't out of reach.

And if Weis is fired there won't be a year tear down unless they hire someone with a completely different offensive philosophy.

Killian wrote:The original point was that it was out of the realm of possibility for ND (or most any team) to go from 6 wins to 11 or 12.

No, it wasn't.

The original point was that it's far-fetched (those specific words) for ND to go from 6 wins to 12 wins. Far-fetched does not mean "out of the realm of possibility," it simply means it's unlikely to be true. You'll notice I already mentioned that those types of turnarounds DO happen occasionally (more like rarely), but it's because they happen so rarely that they're far-fetched to begin with.

When Alabama did it, that was absolutely an unlikely result. Yeah, it happened, but it was a far-fetched scenario beforehand. Nobody really saw it coming. But in fairness, that scenario wasn't quite as far-fetched seeing as Bama had/has an accomplished head coach. Saban won a title and had done some things in CFB prior to that turnaround. It's a bit more difficult to believe Weis can do the same since he hasn't accomplished much of anything in CFB.

Dammit, what, UT isn't in Austin either??

Somebody better put a stop to this shit. Half the cities in America, I only know about their existence because some BTPCF is supposed to reside there.

Take away the Michigan Wolverines and Ann Arbor isn't even Ulan Bator to me.

Auburn, Alabama?
South Bend, Indiana?
College Station, Texas?
Whereverthefuck, Pennsylvania?
Morgantown, West Virginny?
Corvallis, Oregon?
Pullman, Washington?
Norman, Oklahoma?
Lincoln, Nebraska?
Gainesville, Florida
Fayettefuckingville, Arkansas?


Jesus. I know my map better than 99% of Americans, and it's all because of BTPCF.

Quit pissing in my cornflakes.

Holy cow, what a pathetic excuse for a schedule....


S05 NEVADA 3:30pm NBC (W)
S12 @ Michigan TBA (L)
S19 MICHIGAN ST. 3:30pm NBC (L)
S26 @ Purdue 8pm ABC/ESPN (W)
O03 WASHINGTON 3:30pm NBC (W)
O17 SOUTHERN CAL 3:30pm NBC (L)
O24 BOSTON COLLEGE 3:30pm NBC (W)
O31 Washington St. 7:30pm NBC(SA) (W)
N07 NAVY 2:30pm NBC (W)
N14 @ Pittsburgh TBA (L)
N21 CONNECTICUT 2:30pm NBC (W)
N28 @ Stanford 8pm ABC (W)

8-4. If the breaks go there way, I will give them the Michigan and/or Pitt games as well. Worst case scenario is 7-5. Probable scenario is 8-4 or 9-3. 10-2 if they get a lot of breaks.

They will go to the Gator Bowl most likely. That should be enough to at least temper the Weis haters. But I would have to think that 2010 better be at least a BCS VICTORY or I wouldn't be surprised if the Notre Dame boosters try and force him out of there.

TheJON wrote: They will go to the Gator Bowl most likely. That should be enough to at least temper the Weis haters. But I would have to think that 2010 better be at least a BCS VICTORY or I wouldn't be surprised if the Notre Dame boosters try and force him out of there.

I can hear the Fortune 500 companies pulling up their roots and relocating to the wasteland of Iowa to employ brilliant, forward-thinking fuckkchips like Noj. Weis finally on the hot seat after a mediocre 09 season? Jon, you are just so fucking insightful. How do you do it?

Screw_Michigan wrote:

TheJON wrote: They will go to the Gator Bowl most likely. That should be enough to at least temper the Weis haters. But I would have to think that 2010 better be at least a BCS VICTORY or I wouldn't be surprised if the Notre Dame boosters try and force him out of there.

I can hear the Fortune 500 companies pulling up their roots and relocating to the wasteland of Iowa to employ brilliant, forward-thinking fuckkchips like Noj. Weis finally on the hot seat after a mediocre 09 season? Jon, you are just so fucking insightful. How do you do it?

Learn. To. Read. Retard. Thanks.

I did not say anything about him "finally" being on the hot seat. He's been on the hot seat for a couple years. But I'm guessing he better win a BCS Bowl by next year or he's BOOM......outta here.

Jon,

The only place I wold disagree would be with the UM/MSU games. UM will be starting a freshman QB and outside of Warren, haven't played well in thew secondary. I don't think UM will be ready to win this game. As foer MSU, they'll be starting a new QB and RB on the road for the first time. ND should not lose that game.

I don't think ND will make a run in 2010 because I think Tate and Clausen are gone if they have good years.

TheJON wrote:S05 NEVADA 3:30pm NBC (W)
S12 @ Michigan TBA (L)
S19 MICHIGAN ST. 3:30pm NBC (L)
S26 @ Purdue 8pm ABC/ESPN (W)
O03 WASHINGTON 3:30pm NBC (W)
O17 SOUTHERN CAL 3:30pm NBC (L)
O24 BOSTON COLLEGE 3:30pm NBC (W)
O31 Washington St. 7:30pm NBC(SA) (W)
N07 NAVY 2:30pm NBC (W)
N14 @ Pittsburgh TBA (L)
N21 CONNECTICUT 2:30pm NBC (W)
N28 @ Stanford 8pm ABC (W)

That's exactly how I've got it as well.

Left Seater wrote:Good discussion.

Sounds like you think USC, Navy, Pitt and Michigan are untouchable. I can see that. I don't know though with Stanford or another lower level west coast team you can have three Big East teams.

If they want to play so many Big East teams each year, why not join the conferece? (I know another discussion)


My strength of schedule numbers came from google. Should have gone with Sag.

With two service academies, Pitt, Stanford, and two big east teams each year, I don't think that schedule does ND any favors. Sure some years half of those schools will be decent, but in most years they start off working from behind. Even in years that those schools are better they are still working to overcome voter bias of those schools.

You'll note that I suggested dropping the annual matchup with Stanford in favor of a game rotating among various western schools including Stanford. Stanford would play one home-and-home vs. ND per decade under my suggestion. Of the other schools on my list, Cal, UCLA and even Arizona State are better most seasons than Stanford (or at least, than Stanford has been in recent years). Hawaii's a bit tougher to gauge, but they're only included to give ND a thirteenth game two seasons every decade.

The Big East rotating schools would include West Virginia. For that matter, Cincinnati, Louisville and USF all have shown flashes of brilliance at times, and Rutgers and UConn have been respectable in recent years. Syracuse has been the conference doormat recently, but they have enough tradition to turn things around under the right circumstances.

I never suggested that playing two service academies was mandatory or even desirable. I did say it should be the limit. I used an extra service academy only by way of illustration. For that matter, also by way of illustration, I'd like to see Swarbrick reverse White and schedule the home-and-home with Minnesota to include Minnesota's dedication game at its new stadium. I'd also like to see ND schedule neutral-site one-off games vs. both Virginia Tech and Northern Illinois (at Washington, D.C. and Chicago, respectively), given that both schools suffered a shooting on campus in the relatively recent past, with a portion of the proceeds going to a non-violence organization. Again, just some examples of what I'd like to see.

I'd also consider returning Michigan State and Purdue to annual status, if, and only if, the Big Ten gets rid of its September-only policy with respect to scheduling ND. But I think ND will need two available dates in September, not just one, to pull off something like this.